Something I discovered via the statosphere blog is the fantastic Book of Odds website. One of the items on there is this study on your chances of becoming a YouTube celebrity, which draws on a Slate article all about YouTube stats and takes it a stage further.
I wouldn’t hold your breath as according to the Book of Odds:
- 1 in 2.39 videos (so just less than half) are viewed less than 10 times after even a month
- Only 1 in 401 reach 10,000 views
So based on that, what are the odds of your video reaching a million views? About 1 in 3.1 million. By comparison, you have a better chance of winning £100,000 ($161,000) in the UK’s national lottery (1 in 2.3 million) – the equivalent of getting five numbers right plus the bonus number.
In fact, according to these odds you are more likely to be hit by a bus (2 in a million in the UK), or of being struck by lightening in any one year (1 in 700,000 according to the US National Weather Service).
Now that we know that you are 6x more likely to get hit by a bus than reaching YouTube stardom – any takers on those odds?!